Background: As stated in this chapter, a project manager’s objective is not to remove all risk from a project—that simply can’t be done—but to identify and manage risks to the benefit of the project. The leadership team at R & S Amusements Services has just spent several hours going through the process of identifying project risks, assessing their probability and impact, and preparing the resulting risk management plan—a plan that will hopefully help ensure the success of the project.

Current Situation 1: Jeff Dunbar and Kevin Pullen of PPMS were sitting in Jeff’s office, reviewing the risk management plan they just completed with the help of Reid Lewis, Diana Brooks, Elaine Henry, Heidi Cosgray, and Mark Lewis of R & S Amusements Services. Both Jeff and Kevin were wondering if the team had performed an adequate job of not only identifying all the possible risks concerning the project but also correctly assigning the probability of occurrence

Discussion: Review the minicases at the end of Chapters 2, 3, 4, and 7. What additional risks, if any, should be identified concerning the working relationship with Mark Lewis, the hiring of A.J., the problems with Heidi Cosgray and service management, and the current business problems with R & S Amusements Services? If there are additional risks, what is your estimate of the probability of their occurrence? What is your estimate of the impact to the project?

Current Situation 2: Diana Brooks and Mark Lewis of R & S Amusements Services were discussing with Reid Lewis of R & S and Jeff Dunbar and Kevin Pullen from PPMS the identified risk “Unavailable subject matter experts—the staff at R & S Amusements Services (R & S) will not be dedicated to this project alone; they will still have to perform their regular duties.” Diana had been assigned the task of assigning the probability of occurrence of the risk and assigned it a .9 probability. Mark had disagreed with that assessment, saying that it was way out of line and should be no higher than .3. Mark told those present that keeping the probability at .9 was a mistake and doing so would create a flawed risk management plan.

Discussion: How would you explain to Mark that the plan is not flawed? How would you resolve the disagreement between Mark and Diana? What technique(s) would you use to determine the proper probability of this risk and any other risk on the project?